Sea level rise will disrupt the lives of millions of Americans by 2050, study finds

Sea level rise driven by global warming will disrupt the daily lives of millions of Americans, as hundreds of homes, schools and government buildings face frequent and repeated flooding by 2050, a new study has found.

Almost 1,100 critical infrastructure assets supporting coastal communities will be at risk from monthly flooding by 2050, according to new research from the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). The vast majority of assets — 934 of them — face the risk of flooding every other week, which could render some coastal neighborhoods uninhabitable within two to three decades.

Almost 3 million people currently live in the 703 US coastal communities with critical infrastructure at risk of monthly disruptive flooding by 2050, including affordable and subsidized housing, wastewater treatment facilities, toxic industrial sites, power plants , fire stations, schools, kindergartens and hospitals.

The number of critical infrastructure assets at risk of catastrophic flooding is expected to almost double by 2020, even assuming an average rate of climate-driven sea-level rise (rather than the worst-case scenario).

California, Florida, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts and New Jersey have the most critical infrastructure that needs to be made more resilient to flooding — or moved to safer ground.

Within states, the burden of coastal flooding will not be equal: More than half of the critical assets facing frequent flooding by 2050 are located in communities already disadvantaged by historical and current structural racism, discrimination and pollution, the analysis found. of UCS.

Disadvantaged coastal communities with flood-prone infrastructure have higher proportions of Black, Latino, and Native American residents. Public and affordable housing represents the single most vulnerable infrastructure in these communities.

Routine flooding of critical infrastructure can lead to some of the most vulnerable and underserved children being forced to travel further for school and medical appointments, as well as contaminating local water supplies from flooding contaminated soil, according to Juan Declet-Barreto . a report author and senior social scientist on climate vulnerability at UCS.

“Failure to prioritize resilience solutions in these communities risks reinforcing the damaging legacy of environmental racism and colonialism in already extremely underserved and overlooked places,” said Declet-Barreto.

The report, Impending Deadlines for Coastal Resilience, comes at a critical time for the climate emergency amid spiraling fossil fuel production in countries such as the US, UK, Norway, Canada, China and Brazil – and the deadly heat, floods and droughts battering communities there all the world. world with increased frequency and intensity. Meanwhile, the devastating consequences of slow-onset climate disasters such as desertification, melting glaciers and rising sea levels are also driving rising costs, loss of homes and livelihoods, and forced displacement for communities around the world.

The world’s oceans are rising and each year seawater is reaching further inland, posing an ever-increasing threat to homes, businesses and critical infrastructure. By 2030, the number of buildings and critical facilities at risk from routine and recurring flooding along the US coast is expected to increase by 20% compared to 2020 conditions.

In Charleston, South Carolina, more than 20 high-tide floods were recorded in 2023, sending seawater onto roads and submerging low-lying areas. By 2050, at least 23 essential pieces of infrastructure in Charleston are expected to flood at least twice a year, assuming an average sea level rise scenario. That includes 17 public housing buildings, which would exacerbate the state’s affordable housing crisis.

UCS researchers identified critical infrastructure across the U.S., as well as Guam, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, that face the risk of routine flooding, using data including National Oceanic Administration tide gauges and Atmospheric (NOAA) and three sea level rises. scenarios developed by a US Interagency Task Force.

Critical infrastructure includes buildings and facilities that provide functions necessary to sustain daily life – or that, if flooded, could cause environmental hazards. The full impact of coastal flooding is likely to be significantly worse, as drinking water facilities, bus and subway stations, and retirement and aged care facilities were not included in the UCS study.

The analysis examines flooding caused only by sea level rise and tidal elevations. Other climate-related drivers, including storms and heavy rainfall, which can – and do – increase the risk of devastating floods, were not included in the study.

The risk of coastal flooding is increasing every year. The amount of sea-level rise by the end of the century will ultimately depend on the world’s willingness to limit or continue releasing heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. But without urgent action to reinforce critical infrastructure, the number of schools, apartment blocks, energy facilities and government buildings at risk of devastating floods is expected to increase by at least sevenfold by 2100, according to UCS analysis.

Almost 7.5 million people currently live in 1,758 coastal communities with critical infrastructure at risk of frequent and recurrent flooding by the end of the century. Assuming a medium scenario, about 4,800 buildings and structures on the US coast face the threat of disruptive food every two weeks by 2100.

“Even if their homes stay dry, devastating flooding of vital infrastructure can leave people essentially trapped within their communities or enduring intolerable and even unlivable conditions,” said Erika Spanger, a co-author and director of strategic climate analytics at UCS. “There is a rapidly approaching deadline for many coastal communities that requires urgent attention.”